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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: Sandywater   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Bear Catchers
Date: 01/04/23 6:16 PM
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Craig

I remember the article. But I think the consensus from either that article or from other research was that in order to predict a recession, we should look at either industrial production or retail sales. In our current environment, neither would have told us to hedge. Except retail sales did dip below zero for a short time in March 2022 and a tiny bit in November 2022. Doesn't look like much help to me.

St. Louis Fed (FRED): Industrial Production: Total Index | FRED

St. Louis Fed (FRED): Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales | FRED

I could be wrong about this. Maybe someone else could clarify the situation.

Also, as Jim previously mentioned, the Nasdaq NH-NL EMA 13 was spot on, particularly for Saul Stocks. https://schrts.co/SZjxxRkh

Sandywater
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