BRK forward return by P/B

Using the book values data in post #9690 by PickTrader, I computed the forward returns of BRK vs. Price/Book value.
The computed P/B was in good agreement with other sources of P/B.
The starting points were quarterly, not monthly, since the BVs are only reported quarterly.

The P/B from Q1'1993 to Q4'1999 were very high. Almost always greater than 1.55.
The returns in this period were also very high, with most of the 12 month returns above 50%. BRK-A went from 12,750 to 56,100, CAGR 24.5%. This is unlikely to happen again, so I have also run the figures for the period beginning Q1'2000.

The figures are the N-month return, not the CAGR.

Q4 1991 to Q1 2023
Bucket Cnt  Avg 3m  Avg 6m   Avg 12m  Avg 18m
1.10   3    5.39%   10.63%    23.09%   44.35%
1.15   5    2.81%   13.46%    29.09%   38.39%
1.20   5   10.56%   18.53%    27.23%   31.56%
1.25   8    2.03%   -1.98%     8.06%   20.77%
1.30  16    8.17%   13.52%    27.01%   34.34%
1.35  12   -0.89%    3.36%     4.11%   11.93%
1.40  12    4.34%    9.46%    15.42%   26.11%
1.45   8    3.49%    7.13%    19.03%   17.90%
1.50   8   -0.75%    3.84%    10.31%    9.75%
1.55  48    3.40%    6.42%    13.28%   23.75%

min     1.10   P/B range
Avg     1.55
max     2.63
med     1.46


Q1 2000 to Q1 2023
Bucket Cnt  Avg 3m  Avg 6m   Avg 12m  Avg 18m
1.10   3    5.39%   10.63%    23.09%   44.35%
1.15   5    2.81%   13.46%    29.09%   38.39%
1.20   5   10.56%   18.53%    27.23%   31.56%
1.25   8    2.03%   -1.98%     8.06%   20.77%
1.30  13    7.75%   11.40%    18.88%   24.36%
1.35  12   -0.89%    3.36%     4.11%   11.93%
1.40  11    4.84%   10.15%    14.11%   22.10%
1.45   7    3.71%    8.73%    17.95%   17.08%
1.50   6   -2.75%   -0.73%     4.40%    3.66%
1.55  22   -0.56%   -1.53%    -1.07%    2.10%

min     1.10   P/B range
Avg     1.43
max     1.99
med     1.40

My conclusion:
* Returns from a P/B greater than about 1.50 will probably be low.
* Except at very low P/B (below 1.25) the returns for holding periods of 12 months and shorter are good but unpredictable.
* The best returns are for longer holding periods, 12 months and longer.

My takeaway:
* If you are putting on leverage, particularly via DITM LEAPS, put it on at P/B 1.45 and below, and take it off at 1.50 and above. Of course, you need to factor in the cost of the leverage.