This ignores two things about who is in control of the war: (1) Israel is the decider, and has been from the start, and (2) Iran has a say in when the war stops.

Certainly important factors. But do not underestimate the strength of Trump's narcissism. He's not going to care what Israel thinks or wants if it conflicts with what he wants. And he doesn't actually care about what happens in the Middle East except to the extent that it affects his interests.

So even if it's not in Israel's interests for us to stand down the war, or it's going to leave a gaping festering conflict if we stand down the war, as soon as Trump thinks it's in his personal best interests to declare victory and go home, he's perfectly capable and willing to do that.

Now - it could easily reach the point where declaring victory and going home isn't going to be in Trump's personal interests for a while. If Iran were to inflict a major casualty event on U.S. troops, for example, he might continue to think that he is personally best served by staying and fighting on. But we don't actually have to "win" the war by any conventional metric for Trump to decide that we've actually "won" and leave, if that's what he thinks is in his personal interests.