No. of Recommendations: 26
I have always been rather bemused by their reports on Berkshire.
This one is typical; they report the 5 year rate of growth of book per share at 11.0%, yet project the next 3-5 years at 6.0%. (pretty sad given that's not much above inflation)
Every year about the same inexplicable gap, so their forward growth and stock return forecasts have been huge underestimates for decades.
(I am reminded of that cliche definition of insanity...)
Their earnings estimates for calendar 2023 and 2024 are both lower than the 2022 figure, though of course year to year variability makes that a mug's game.
Their ROE estimate for 2023 and 2024 is 4.5%, and for 2026-2028 is 4.0%.
Why such perennial gloom?
Their in-house process requires them not to take any account of the benefit of any future acquisitions,
so the forecast for earnings growth, book growth, and ROE are always low because they always implicitly assume that the cash will simply stack up.
That makes sense for the average firm, but, based on the results, has never worked for their Berkshire analysis.
Some stuff seems sensible.
Financial strength: A++
Stock price stability: 100/100 (this is a relative measure)
Price growth persistence: 95/100
Jim
