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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: musselmant 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: study of top 10 52wk mom stocks in Nasdaq100
Date: 12/28/25 2:05 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 8
A study of the detriments/benefits of the screen where you buy the top 10 or 5 or 1 1-year momentum Nasdaq100 stock(s) and hold for a month, then repeat.
First year and this year are partial; all other years the full year.
Even with a realistic spread you double the Nasdaq100 with the same drawdown risk except for 1 stock (which has a worse maximum drawdown).
I presented each year's results without the assumed spread. As you can see most years' CAGR beats the Nasdaq100's. Not a greater number of losing calendar years than the Nasdaq100 itself had.
The main negative to note is there would be MANY big drawdowns in MANY years but in those same years usually the strategy would make it back by year's end.

	nas100		10 stcks		5		1		10 stk	10 stk	5 stk	5 stk	1 stk	1 stk 
cagr mdd cagr mdd cagr mdd cagr mdd worst worst worst worst worst worst
0% spread 11.5 -80.8 24.6 -71.5 27.8 -73.3 33.4 -89.9 23.96 -77 25.86 -77.8 29.5
w .2 spread 23.9 -77.3 26.78 -77.5 32 -90.2 23.1 -77 24.1 -26.78 28.1
feb 5 1985 ann'l cagr drawdown annl cagr drawdown annl cagr drawdown
dec 31 85 10.112988 -12.092443 29.26 -15.1 44.1 -21.2 57 -33 17.7 -16.5 34.3 -27.4 24.6 -34.7
1986 5.258567 -3.083178 28.3 -23 40.6 -27.2 -10.4 -49.2 23.4 -27.8 34.8 -29.3 -23.6 -59.6
1987 -0.42071 -15.236847 52 -46 49 -52 99.7 -50.6 43.9 -49.5 34.1 -53.4 57.9 -53.5
1988 20.495609 -0.726449 25.4 -12.6 43.1 -16.2 83.3 -26 11.3 -14.4 30.1 -22.3 5 -41
1989 17.318949 -0.287927 61.9 -14.2 75.2 -18.9 76.8 -38 5.86 -17.2 62.1 -20.5 40.8 -43
1990 -8.810126 -23.355663 15.2 -36.3 10.2 -40.3 -10 -60.3 1 -38.4 -5 -48.7 -19.5 -67
1991 58.053272 -4.941127 144 -14.4 158.8 -16 223.5 -26 128.3 -15.3 131.9 -19.3 138.4 -32
1992 13.774762 -8.219828 9.5 -28 9.8 -32.2 12.7 -45 -4 -31.1 -5.3 -37.7 -13.1 -52.7
1993 13.819582 -10.081452 21.7 -29.4 24.2 -27.3 142.4 -32.3 15.9 -22.4 7 -32.3 85.2 -40.3
1994 -1.637974 -15.152705 5.9 -29 17.5 -32.6 16.6 -51.2 -7 -38.2 -1 -38.8 -5.2 -56.8
1995 35.853176 -1.385607 47 -20.3 36.6 -26.5 55.2 -26.2 37 -22.8 23.3 -31.8 49.7 -27.6
1996 21.931629 -6.936677 28 -22.6 17.9 -28 37 -46 13.1 -24.4 8.7 -34.7 10 -50.4
1997 11.098893 -11.848307 27.7 -25.6 34.3 -34.7 212.4 -30 15.5 -27.4 20.7 -37.7 166 -30
1998 35.369526 -12.863797 77 -25.7 108.4 -25.4 444.9 -25.7 52.9 -30 77.7 -31 328 -32
1999 79.495712 -2.733082 156.9 -27.8 210.6 -41 152.5 -58 138 -33 178.5 -45 62.6 -63
2000 -17.485722 -22.998171 -10.3 -53 -23.6 -55.3 -61 -75.6 -17.4 -57 -35.5 -61 -84 -85.9
2001 -29.017441 -54.014 -22.5 -46.1 -21 -47.2 -13 -50 -36 -51 -29.8 -58 -49 -50
2002 -42.008621 -57.816963 -22 -37 -22.5 -41.4 -45.5 -60.2 -28.4 -39.4 -28.1 -45.5 -57 -63
2003 59.112804 -3.871403 52.1 -12.6 66.5 -17.3 92.2 -29.1 23.8 -15.3 56.3 -21.5 41 -32.2
2004 12.960567 -12.1085 23.3 -24 26.5 -26 138.2 -25.3 9.5 -28 14.5 -30 115 25.5
2005 4.328349 -12.351278 11.9 -15.4 38 -13.3 27 -27.4 8 -19 26.9 -15.5 7.4 -30
2006 11.450953 -8.713487 4.6 -27 6.7 -32.4 6.2 -45 -5 -30 -7.3 -39 -41 -62.3
2007 9.737581 -1.645146 47.7 -17 45.9 -18.5 89.5 -25.3 40.3 -17.4 31.7 -20 43.3 -32.3
2008 -43.259415 -54.386059 -40 -46.6 -40.3 -49 -56.6 -65.8 -46 -51 -49.3 -55 -42.574627 -55
2009 62.469513 -14.155418 25.4 -15.4 9.5 -18 -19 -42.4 17.9 -18.1 1 -21.6 -48.1 -56.4
2010 22.28372 -5.683468 41.4 -19 34 -20.3 -11 -41.4 37 -19.7 27.7 -23.5 -34.2 -54
2011 -2.389229 -11.340731 2.4 -20.4 -1 -26 1 -59 -5 -22.6 -6.6 -32.8 -7 -64
2012 15.475595 0 21 -12 24.7 -12 31.2 -26 14.1 -12.9 14.4 -14 10.7 -31.9
2013 40.953392 0 72 -8.5 61.5 -12 22.4 -28 62 -9 50.6 -13.3 3 -40
2014 19.58008 -4.02692 34.1 -19 40 -20.2 47.1 -30 19.5 -20.1 20 -21.2 29 -29.9
2015 3.059628 -7.685346 14.5 -14 22 -4.75 -10 -39.2 9.9 -15.2 14.7 -21 -44.5 -50
2016 7.315393 -15.412898 16.9 8.9 -21.5 -25.3 138.6 -32 12.3 -22.7 19.5 -27.2 98.5 -35.1
2017 26.355804 0 5 -26 3.4 -28.3 -1 -49 26.7 -13.4 31.4 -16.1 59.1 -23.3
2018 -4.763682 -10.592468 5 -26 3.4 -28.3 1 -49 -2 -26 -4.1 -31.8 -26.5 -53.4
2019 35.890022 -2.292423 30.1 -15.5 37.2 -16.6 48.9 -26.7 24.7 -16.8 27.8 -21.5 32.6 -34.9
2020 38.137611 -25.386816 91.1 -36.5 125 -40.3 223.6 -60.8 79.7 -38.6 93.5 -43.5 66.2 -63.7
2021 19.313095 -2.334875 14.7 -28.9 14.2 -31.5 -1.3 -54 6.2 -31.1 1.4 34.2 -25.2 -59.2
2022 -23.313957 -29.951931 -32.6 -36.4 -35.8 -40.3 -52.4 -64 -38.7 -42 -43 -45.1 -65.4 -68.1
2023 35.80962 -0.403389 25.4 -13 20.5 -15.4 -3 -37.4 14.2 -16 9.7 -18.8 -13.2 -49.1
2024 7.662571 -2.914234 23.3 -28.2 12.9 -37.1 148.8 -30 9.6 30.3 0 -41.6 60.8 -46.2
2025 15.841774 -14.123734 42 -32 58.4 -37 41.2 -56.5 20.2 -35.5 19.6 -41.1 48.8 -59.2

times beat 27 of 44 2 of 44 27 of 44 2 of 44 23 of 44 0 of 44 23 of 44 0 of 44 24 of 44 0 of 44 21 of 44 0 of 44
nasdaq100 61% 61% 52% 50% 54% 47%

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