No. of Recommendations: 17
Here is one of the best, in-depth articles about what’s going on; lead story in today’s Wall Street Journal. Gift link included. Summary version: Iran’s leaders don’t trust us, are preparing for a long conflict, and are running circles around the short-term thinkers in Washington.
Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War
Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies After President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with [Iran] in mid-June, administration officials fanned out to build support for an agreement they hoped would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start winding down the war.
Iran’s hard-line leaders huddled in Tehran and came up with a different plan, according to Iranian and Arab officials. In their view the pact was likely just an attempt by the U.S. and Israel to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road. Instead of putting faith in talks, they took the past two months to prepare for a bigger fight.
Their efforts include giving the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more control of the country’s regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the war with [Iraq] and past internal crackdowns to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence operations and ramping up production of missiles and drones. The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran’s grip on Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has used to get around Iran’s chokehold on the Persian Gulf.
Arab intelligence officials have picked up evidence—including communications between Iran and militia allies in countries such as Yemen and Iraq—of a strategic shift inside the country’s hard-line leadership to get their forces ready to widen the war and raise the costs for the U.S., officials familiar with the findings say. Alarming weaker Gulf countries like Kuwait, Iran’s leaders are increasingly talking about offensive operations on enemy territory.
Their overriding goal is to inflict enough pain to ensure the kind of attacks Iran has endured with the [12-day war last year] and the continuing conflict aren’t repeated.
Gift link: wsj.com - Iran plan escalate warYes, there is somebody playing 3D chess - and it isn’t us. I’ll wager our response is going to be “Me bigger, you small”, again.
