No. of Recommendations: 7
I have Dec/Jan/Mar puts, all kind of strikes from $440 to $500, 12%-112% in the plus
I presume we're talking about puts you purchased, putting out cold hard cash as a wager on a price drop.
In the long run, the price is going to rise. When it was trading at $535 it was a pretty solid bet that the price would be lower some day soonish. But now, it's not nearly as certain. P/B was down to around 1.48 today, a multiple around where we know for sure that Berkshire was buying back B shares for economic reasons (i.e., thought to be a good deal). It's still fairly likely the price will go lower--the two most popular directions for share prices are up and down, after all--but it is no longer certain enough that I would bet hard earned money on it.
So perhaps there is a case to be had for closing them, or at least some of them? I closed the last of mine a little while back. Just my two cents. The positions probably have a meaningful cash value at this point, which it would be a shame to give back.
There is sometime a case for selling half of each position. If they become more profitable, you'll feel great for having waited to close those. If they start giving back profits, you'll feel great for snagging profits on the first half. "Minimize maximum regret" : )
Jim
