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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: musselmant ✧☼  😊 😞
Number: of 6374 
Subject: Re: new screen based on Nasdaq100
Date: 05/22/25 1:09 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 14
quantifiededges says:
pairing two ETFs with a once-a-year rebalance, has delivered a remarkable 18% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) since 2012, with a maximum open drawdown of -28%. An anti-beta ETF (BTAL) acting as a hedge, and a 3x leveraged Nasdaq fund, specifically TQQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq-100 Index with triple leverage. A once-a-year rebalance on the first trading day of January to restore the portfolio’s target weights. That’s it—just five minutes of work annually.
67% BTAL – long position. Market neutral, short beta exposure.
33% TQQQ – long position, 3x exposure to Nasdaq.

The result does not differ that much if you re-balance quarterly or annually. The annual return is 18%, and the max drawdown is 28% per post, from late 2011 forward.

You might want to swap TQQQ with QLD (2x leverage to Nasdaq 100) it notes.

Instead of a percent of each, I tested simply alternating between SPY and TQQQ by the best 200 day return from the latter's start date 19930129, with the usual BCC for timing used in many tests her. I also tested with QLD instead of treble leverage, and this was superior.
strategyTQQQ  Nasdaq100   SPY  strategyQLD
cagr 18.97 11% 11.3% 18.89
gsd 38.95 27.8 17.76 27.93
mdd -69.9 -80.79 -60.29 -51.7
shrp .64 .45 .58 .74
beta 1.29 1.3 1.0 1.0
2024 58.2 6.6 13.0 42.8
2008-27.5 -43.2 -40.9 -27.5
gtr1.net: GTR1 Backtester
gtr1.net: GTR1 Backtester

http://gtr1.net/2013/?h21::gprc%281%29gt0:tr%281,2...

http://gtr1.net/2013/?h21::gprc%281%29gt0:tr%281,2...
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