AdrianC wrote:

I thought a lot of S&P500 index fund investors might find it interesting. The thread was closed by the moderator as being a "Non-actionable (Trolling) Topic" after a few responses, mainly positive.

Wow. I am shocked. I have always had a high regard for the Bogleheads, especially their very useful spreadsheet of annual index returns.

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My general question is this: where were these issues two years ago? That's not meant to be an aggressive or rhetorical question. I really am interested, and am not sure I know. My (imperfect) memory causes me to think that discussion then sounded pretty similar. But since then the market has risen ~50%. Does believing in the current bubble mean believing that that entire gain will be given back? If it is, will we not simply be back to where we were two years ago, when the market was already widely judged to be overvalued?

The phrase "it's different this time" is often used ironically to highlight the naïveté of undue optimism. Does it not apply on the other side as well: why is it "this time" that the future really will turn out to be bleak?

One reason I am so concerned is that this time I am far more inclined to believe in the on-rushing bear. But my reasons have nothing to do with the stock market, and if I there is one thing I have always tried to avoid, it is making investment decisions based on my own good judgment.

Baltassar