mortgagestrategy.co.uk - Autumn budget landlords hit by income tax hike from

UK just changed the rules to substantially increase tax on small landlords. e.g. 20% -> 24%, 40%->44%, 45%->49%.

Small landlords are the dominant source of UK student accomodation and margins are already pretty tight and 'hassle' under new laws is increasingly high.

I don't have a lot of time to model the effects by hand just now so I asked a few different AIs a few different questions to see what kind of numbers and modelling came back.

The reasoning they came back with was similar but varied around different base case assumptions about % propensity to quit vs '% propensity to tell newspapers they would quit'.

Also different numbers for 'someone else decides to have a go at student property using the same house after someone exits'.

Gemini estimated +5% to UTG eps, primarily from assuming that increased occupancy also drove substantially improved rental power to raise prices. Range 2% to 6%.

Chatgpt estimated +1% to UTG eps in future. Range 0.5% to 3%.

Both estimated it would take 1-2 years for the effect to show up.

Another useful tailwind.

TRS