There is hardly any open interest on that flavor. My guess is you couldn't get filled at that price level.

Open interest doesn't matter. The counterparty is a marker maker's computer. You will get a fill at the ask, no problem. Probably even a bit below the ask. Use a limit order!!!!

There have been times when my option holding has been the only open interest of that option.



I don't disagree with your calcs though.

My calculation spreadsheet that I have been using for several years agrees. 1.31%
The 95 is -50% ITM with about 1.9X leverage. Breakeven is only 1.4% up.

I never could understand the bit about (foregone) dividends and how that would or not affect your decision, though. Read some discussions with Jim about that way back when.
They impact the time value and therefore the required break-even point. With 6 dividends of $1.192 the BE move goes from +1.4% to +5.2%.

But that's if you are deciding between buying the stock or the option. If you are just looking at the option (buy or not), then you are just making a straight bet: that the price go up by 1.4% by expiration.

I mostly do options on BRK, so no need to consider dividends. Makes it easy.