Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BYDDYBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BYDDYBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / BYD (BYDDY)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) |
Author: Manlobbi 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 113 
Subject: Re: Thinking Too Simply
Date: 06/05/24 8:16 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 5
These are valid considerations, but I think the IEA article is way too pessimistic. We are not going to convert to mostly electric transportation overnight, it is much more likely to take 15-20 years.

I think that this is a good point, particularly because we tend to project only a subset of all variables forward when we make projections. In this case the article projects the use of copper forward, but it does not project how technology can change over long periods of time. Similarly projections only a couple of decades ago were extremely critical of solar power ever being cost effective, but the technology kept improving, so the equations were completely different further down the track.

The article talks about mineral demand for use in EVs and battery storage growing 30-40 times, framing the question in a way that sounds alarming, but the real question is, what do these extra mineral requirements for EVs and storage add to the existing demand for these minerals, not just from EVs and storage but from all other uses?

They did address that, and stated it as reaching about 60% over total present global demand, in a fairly aggressive scenario of half of all cars becoming EV. If the requirement for copper increased by 60% even tomorrow, I think the copper would still be supplied and it would just be more expensive, but if that happens over 20 years then we are not talking about a radical increase in demand. So yes, the tone was alarmist but they were essentially verifying that we have plenty of copper.

If the mineral costs really get expensive, they can also be recycled from the EV:
climate.mit.edu - How well can electric vehicle batteries be recycled
Of course, 10 or 20 years down the track, the technology will look a lot different to how it does today, just as EV technology looks completely different today than it did in 2004.

- Manlobbi
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to Manlobbi here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 109 posts about BYD. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BYD financial statements review · 20 recs · 2024
Thinking Too Simply · 7 recs · 2024
Anti China Sentiment · 4 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) |


Announcements
BYD FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BYDDY | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community