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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: tjscott0   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: Overmatched: the U.S. military
Date: 12/09/25 10:17 AM
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"A world war would ruin everyone’s Macroeconomic day."

Let's toss something else into the mix:

unz.com - What happens if japan joins the war in taiwan

Sanae Takaichi, the newly minted prime minister of Japan, addressed to the Japanese parliament in November that a conflict in Taiwan constituted a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, implying Japan will directly and proactively involve itself in a fight with China.

The remark came shortly after the big meeting between President Xi and Trump in South Korea at the end of October to reset trade ties. The question of Taiwan was explicitly shelved by both during the meeting.

What Takaichi is asserting is that in a scenario where the secessionist government in Taiwan declares de jure independence and Beijing prepares for a military action, Japan could preemptively launch an attack on China without China first attacking Japanese forces or territories.

The phrase “survival threatening situation” is not a casual slip of tongue. It has a specific and deadly meaning in Japanese official lingo.

Imperial Japan invoked the same exact phrase to justify its aggressions prior to the 1931 invasion of Manchuria in Northeast China, and again prior to the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor.

japantimes.co.jp - Explainer japan existential crisis

Takaichi’s remarks came amid a long-running debate over Japan’s role in a potential emergency over Taiwan.

A decade ago, then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cited two specific scenarios as potential “survival-threatening situations”: a crisis in the Hormuz Strait — a crucial lane for energy import-dependent Japan — and an emergency on the Korean Peninsula.

Since then, though, government officials have shown greater caution in describing such situations.

Before Takaichi, no sitting prime minister to date had ever referred to a concrete scenario where an attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation,” potentially allowing the deployment of the SDF, effectively giving the Japanese leader a degree of leeway when push comes to shove.

Over the last few weeks, Takaichi has admitted her remarks were off script and that she had no intention to cite a concrete scenario, reiterating that her government’s position is in line with those of her predecessors.
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