No. of Recommendations: 2
One thing that I have reluctantly become convinced of is that for a long-term investor, trying to do timing is futile and counterproductive. Well-defined timing rule-based strategies of course, not handwaving ad-hoc untestable strategies.
All that timing does (a well-defined good strategy, that is) is to reduce the volatility and avoid the large drawdowns. But they also miss out on some of the subsequent gains. Long-term, the return is slightly reduced over buy-and-hold.
That could be important for someone living close to the edge, say pulling 4 or 5% annually. Improving the sequence of returns could be more beneficial than outright long-term performance.
Then there's the sleep-at-night factor.
Timing isn't for me but I do see the utility for some.
