Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of BRK.ABest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (66) |
Author: knighttof3   😊 😞
Number: of 21939 
Subject: Re: The Berkshire Problem
Date: 08/10/23 3:27 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 4
I see BRK as an index---an index of companies that have a good steady cash flow.

It's an index of cats and dogs.
Apple - Can buy that directly. One tech company among many, in a sector where the road is paved with the carcasses of former stalwarts.
Insurance - picking up pennies ahead of a steamroller. Highly regulated (irrational regulators in California are refusing to raise rates enough, so many insurance companies won't write new policies at all. For fire (i.e. home) or auto.) Can't make money on premia because loss ratios are above 100%. "Wonderful management in a poor business" (paraphrasing).
Utilities - Nuff said. Also highly regulated.
Rail - continuously heavy CapEx. Common carrier regulations.
Kittens and puppies - consumer cyclicals like paints and Clayton (subject to homebuilding cycle), Forest River (economic cycle), Netjets (!) No-moat businesses.

What is so great about this index? Has no significant exposure to health care or tech beyond cell phones or consumer staples. Those are proven winners among sectors for the last 20 years (at least). OK, maybe S&P 500 is overvalued. But still more promising for growth than Berkshire.

The basic assumption of value investors - that people will one day wake up and start assigning prices based on deterministic future cash flows - is flawed. It has never been true in the history of stock market. Prices have always been decided by half hype and half reason.

How has BRK stock portfolio done compared to S&P?
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to knighttof3 here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (66) |


Announcements
Berkshire Hathaway FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of BRK.A | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community