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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: Knighted   😊 😞
Number: of 21937 
Subject: Re: On Topic (really :): A Berkshire Hathaway question
Date: 12/17/22 6:00 AM
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Clarified - and very helpful in developing a leverage strategy!

Looking back at your initial post - it sounds like you're following the same path of interest I took a couple years ago, inspired by Jim's findings.

In that case, I highly recommend running a backtest of the approach you have in mind as I did (e.g., applying leverage at whichever cut-offs you have in mind and removing it at others).

I've found in the past that translating bucket of return type of data like this into a trading strategy with cut-offs does not always produce the slam dunk results one might intuitively assume.

I found that to be true in this case. When I backtested a few years ago, the best I recall seeing was a ~1% CAGR advantage, but it also seemed quite fragile (e.g., adjusting the thresholds up or down a bit wiped that advantage out).

I can't confidently say I know why that strategy produced such a small advantage given the incredibly smooth fall/rise in the P/B bucket forward returns in the table, but I suspect it's related to the data in the buckets not being independent observations as Jim said.

However, if you (or Jim) have found otherwise from your testing (i.e., a mechanical strategy that produced a larger advantage), I'd love to hear it! I'd be thrilled to learn that I made a mistake or that there's some nuance I missed.
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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