It's not surprising that the CAGR went down over the last 10 years. "BCIII" is the 99-Day rule (I thought we always called the 99-Day Rule BCI, BWDIK). The 99Day is one of the slow (intermediate-term) indicators with significant lag. It's not called "Wounded Bullish Euphoria", it's called "Dying Bullish Euphoria" for a reason and 99 Days was the minimum lookback duration that tested out reasonably well. But it can get hurt by "faster" bear markets and bull recoveries.

Because it's got 4 1/2 months of lag designed in, it can take that long to issue a bearish signal.
2022 definitely hurt its CAGR. It didn't flip bearish until May 24th '22 - after most of the damage had been done in that bear market.

Then, it didn't flip bullish again until Feb '23 - this year, after most of the recovery from the June '22 bottom had happened.

It was not designed to increase CAGR. It's designed to reduce volatility (losses) in longer bear markets. It's a defensive signal - put in the goal line / big boy defensive package.

These are the main reasons why, like the other BCs and intermediate timing signals, it's better used as part of a team, not as an individual all in/all out signal.

FC