" The SpaceX IPO Is Here. But Is It a Good Investment?
 
The SpaceX IPO is the biggest capital-markets event ever—a record $75 billion raise is targeted for a valuation of $1.8 trillion. Once trading begins, it will join the Nasdaq 100 just 15 trading days later, requiring passive buying of 10% to 15% of the shares, and massive retail participation.

 
• The world’s dominant space company leveraged lower costs from reusable rockets to build Starlink, providing space-based broadband to 10 million customers. But it’s also the world’s most valuable money-losing company, competes with OpenAI and Anthropic, and trades at 40 times estimated 2026 sales.

 
• Its Starship reusable rocket is the key to SpaceX’s future, lowering costs to reach orbit by 90% compared with its Falcon 9 rocket, which had already slashed costs. But its most profitable unit is Starlink, where a 60% margin beats the 38% generated by telecoms like AT&T and Verizon.

 
• SpaceX’s artificial-intelligence business was grafted onto the company when it purchased xAI for $250 billion in February. It generated an operating loss of $6.4 billion in 2025 and a first-quarter loss of $2.5 billion. xAI spent $12.7 billion in 2025, while AI spending hit $7.7 billion in the first quarter.

 
• The losses should be mitigated by selling computing power to Anthropic and Google for $1.25 billion and $920 million a month, respectively. Others seeking computing power could turn to SpaceX, too. Morningstar recently valued SpaceX for about $780 billion, which includes just $170 billion for AI.

 
What’s Next: New York University professor and valuation maven Aswath Damodaran values SpaceX at about $1.3 trillion, or $99 a share. This assumes $420 billion in 2036 revenue, including $40 billion from space, $120 billion from Starlink, $160 billion from AI, and $100 billion from “other” opportunities.

 
—Al Root"


To be clear, the Nasdaq 100 will be buying 10-15 % of the float, 15 days from the close? Can that be correct?