*                         2/24     3/3      3/10     3/17/25
S&P 500 Index             6013.13  5954.50  5770.20  5638.94
Trailing 12 month PE      27.82    27.59    26.56    25.98
Trail Earnings yield      3.59%    3.62%    3.77%    3.85%
Forward 12 month PE       23.45    23.13    22.39    21.87
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.26%    4.32%    4.47%    4.57%
90 day tbill yield        4.32     4.32     4.34     4.33
10 year tbond yield       4.42%    4.24%    4.32%    4.31%
Arezi Ratio               1.20     1.19     1.15     1.12
Fed Ratio                 1.04     0.98     0.97     0.94

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 64%
stocks, 36% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov-Apr part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 34%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 76%.

Elan

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