No. of Recommendations: 2
My near perfect bottom ticking of the market with my post on 10/28If I may brag a little: With this post on 19.Sep:
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=467411534followed by this post 2 days later, stating my actions for everyone to see:
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=38240948I called the market top on the day.
Which indicators did I use? My gut/stomach feeling!
Did I hit the top on the day by chance only? Maybe. But there is another potential explanation which is exactly the opposite of as you say:
natural instincts........ are usually the ones you want to fadeThat a weird or bad gut/feeling is caused by your internal computer called "brain" subconsciously processing lots of inputs, the developments of Indizes, the news etc. etc. - - - and the bad feeling in the stomach is not caused by what you ate yesterday, but is the result of those calculations.
And the feeling gets stronger and stronger until there is a tipping point and you can't ignore it any longer, need to act on it. What follows is that one rationalizes, is looking for facts supporting that feeling, like I did with that Rodriguez chart (see 1st post).
But that's secondary, is just the conscious mind finding an excuse for not being able to stand this bad feeling any longer and to sell masses of stocks as I did (see 2nd post). We need such an excuse as we are telling ourselves that we are rational beings, acting on facts, not on feelings. But that's BS. We do act on feelings, but rationalize that by telling ourselves "
The NHNL indicator and the XYZ indicator and.....". But that doesn't mean those feelings must be irrational. They can be perfectly rational, with the real calculations done subconsciously.
This subconscious processing is something every programmer knows when after failing for many hours if not days to find a bug in his code he wakes up with "Heureka!!! Now I know what the bug is!", going still half asleep to his computer to find that his subconscious indeed found the bug while he was sleeping.
