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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Author: wzambon ✶❂🐝 BRONZE
SHREWD   😊 😞
Number: of 84360 
Subject: Think of AI as a college student taking a test
Date: 03/20/26 12:02 PM
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The science of why AI makes shit up

Researchers at Georgia Tech and OpenAI (ironically) studied¹ why AI models often hallucinate.

The best way to think about this: Think of AI like a college student taking a test.

They do their best on every question. Some questions they know for sure. But when a question arises that they don’t know, they don’t write “I don’t know” in the answer box. They give an answer—because that gives them at least a chance of being right and scoring points.

The scientists found:

AI models make things up because they are trained to produce the most likely next words, not to verify the truth. “Like students facing hard exam questions, large language models sometimes guess when uncertain, producing plausible yet incorrect statements instead of admitting uncertainty,” the researchers wrote.
Some hallucinations are unavoidable because many facts are sparse, arbitrary, or don’t follow a clear pattern in the training data.
How the models are trained and graded is lacking. Most tests of the models reward correct guesses but give no credit for admitting uncertainty—e.g. they get no points for “I don’t know.” So models are pushed to answer confidently rather than admitting uncertainty.

The takeaway: hallucinations are a built-in risk of current language models, and reducing them will require better incentives for honesty.

twopct.com - The expedition march edition
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This community has written 84,309 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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