No. of Recommendations: 6
Jim, what's your opinion on the likelihood of WIP outperforming SGOV over the next 0-36 months based on your reading of the tea leaves?
Well, there are two differences, one being currency and the other duration. The closer comparison would be TIP (a selection of US government issued inflation protected bonds).
Ignoring duration for a moment, comparing TIP and WIP, I would think of the difference this way: WIP has true steady purchasing power of generalized global "stuff", plus a moderate real yield on top. TIP is that, plus or minus a pretty random number for whether the US dollar rises or falls (gains or loses international purchasing power) during your holding period. Phrased that way, WIP is the better choice...if you can predict the direction of the US dollar reliably, you don't need wealth preservation, you can just go out and become a billionaire pretty easily : )
If you want a global version, buy a lot of WIP and some TIP on top to round out the country mix to include the US. Even better would be to buy WIP and a few US TIPS directly. You can't really buy the underlying items inside WIP directly--too many currencies, and some of those bonds can't even be held by non-professional accounts. But buying a TIPS ladder, or your preferred single end date, isn't that hard.
The other thing is duration. The usual trade-off: higher real yield for longer duration, but some price risk. You know any given security will get you back your real principal in the end, but if you sell that early you might get more or less. Inside a fund, it means price squiggles tracking NAV squiggles. Down if interest rates rise, up if they fall. Global rates have generally risen lately, so the NAV and fund price have fallen somewhat, hence the post on this board : ) But if rates don't KEEP rising, that should be over, and maturing securities inside the fund are being replaced with alternatives with much higher real yields.
Your suggestion of SGOV is short duration but not inflation protected. That's not as much of an issue with short duration, but you end up with little idea what the real yield will be when the current securities run off in a few months. T-bills have a negative real yield on average over time. In any case, if I wanted T-bills, I'd buy T-bills (as I have in the past), not a fund stuffed with T-bills.
Jim