My dissertation advisor argued nearly 30 years ago that the US and China would eventually go to war. I argued that the globalization of trade, commodity production, and capital flows, was creating a global capitalist class that would end interstate wars. Once again I proved to be the sophomore.

I recently re-read Barbara Tuchman's Guns of August about the start of WWI. At the time, no one really believed a war could happen, or if it did, it would be over quickly because everyone was getting rich on international trade and a bothersome war would interrupt that. In 1910 Norman Angell published "The Great Illusion," in which he argued that economic interdependence between nations had made war unprofitable and essentially futile. Trading was simply far more profitable than wars of conquest. The book was a best seller, and many people believed that war was now obsolete. That helps explain why governments didn't try hard enough to head off WWI at the pass while there was still time. JFK reportedly made Guns of August required reading among his staff during the Cuban Missile crisis.

You can forgive yourself from 30 years ago for being wrong. Your logic was spot on. Human hubris, stupidity, and decisions based on wishful thinking defy any logic. We saw that today, where different administration officials made radically different statements about the US position on trade. Which means the US doesn't have a position. Which means the conflict can't be negotiated. We can't count on the notion that trade will save us.