Alibaba has risen 80% since its low.


Another 70% and I'll be back to break-even on my investment, lol.


It will be very interesting to see how their changing stance on earnings preservation will start to show up in real figures over the next two or three quarters. I don't greatly care, as their cash flows are fine and they really do need to fight competition right now, however Wall St does care so it will effect the quote over 2023.

They've continued to be a profitable business, and to flow tons of cash despite the headwinds mentioned in my OP and despite re-investing heavily in the business to fight the competition. Top line sales growth has slowed a fair bit, though, from ~40% 2020 to 2021 to ~19% 2021 to 2022, and negligible growth the first two quarters of this fiscal year compared to the same quarters the prior year.

I have some faith that the change in macro environment and easing governmental oversight will allow them to resume robust growth, but macro headwinds continue this year to some extent.

What kind of sales growth do you anticipate over the next 10 years, for your pessimistic forecast, per the Manlobbi Method?