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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: sykesix   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: Are we inflating to the bottom?
Date: 08/20/25 1:20 AM
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The only solution would appear to be massive inflation of the USD - something which has to be apparent to the Secretary of the Treasury et al. Pleas/threats from the President for the Fed to lower interest rates would play into this. While the US equity prices might rise, it would be in terms of inflated dollars - which would frankly make it difficult to determine if investors were winning or losing.

I wouldn't frame it as the solution. I view it more as the likely outcome, as there are far better solutions. As we all know, government deficit spending creates money out of thin air, which can lead to inflation. That policy has been maximized. Plus we have tariffs and onshoring of manufacturing which will increase prices, on top of that we have limits on immigration...all that is not good, when it comes to inflation. I think there will be some inflation baked in no matter what happens in future elections. On top of that, the stock market is at extreme valuations by any objective measure.

Way back in 1977, Warren Buffett wrote a great article in Fortune called "How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor."

csinvesting.org - Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor

I highly recommend people who are concerned with investing and inflation read the whole thing. But in summary, Buffett essentially says equity investors can't beat high rates of inflation. I trust him on this one. He sounds like he knows what he is doing. I predict big things for him. And again, by any reasonable measure, we should expect lower than average equity returns going forward, and that's not counting inflation.

So we have a lot of indicators that officially Don't Look Good™. But trends can change. One thing I observed from watching the "Capital Gang" on CNN back in the day is all these smart people's predictions consisted of simply making a straight line projection of current tends into the future. And they were always wrong, sometimes by the next week. And no one ever called them on it. It worked for them because the show was on for decades, but useless for planning purposes. The only thing I learned from that show was to not make straight line projections. I would have been better off watching "Love Boat" and its message of wildly unrealistic optimism. Still, it might be prudent to identify the nearest exit row including the ones that might be behind you, if you know what I mean.

In the meantime, the prophet Tom Morello has put together a playlist to guide us in these uncertain times:

open.spotify.com: Tom Morello: Fuck ICE - playlist by Tom Morello

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