No. of Recommendations: 3
4/7/2025 UPDATE
(a) Models (full pic) :
dropbox.com - Bottom Pic4/4/2025 -0.3 79.6% FALSE 87.1%
4/7/2025 -1.5 95.2% FALSE 81.5%
That 95.2% print is one of the highest I have seen ( I am not bringing in GFC 2008 - because that's in-sample)
(b) Categorization: A few more to the ribbon today - this is now comparable to 6/16/2022 and early Mar 2020
So - WHOA! level Oversold really.
(c) Pre-requisites: 82% - ie sorta met. But not all.
AND this one should be obvious -its the Capitulation - I track this pretty minutely - so it was almost there with the Open but of course
one a NET BASIS - today was neutral!
NET MESSAGE : Very likely this is the bottom level on this leg (S&P 4800) ...There's of course No Call Trigger or Bottom reversal call - since the estimates are still squarely in danger zone. In this method ( the 2 ruleset tests) - it'll not nail the bottom as I mentioned before.
Best
