4/7/2025 UPDATE

(a) Models (full pic) : https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/gz29jglskj7irasyg50...

4/4/2025 -0.3 79.6% FALSE 87.1%
4/7/2025 -1.5 95.2% FALSE 81.5%

That 95.2% print is one of the highest I have seen ( I am not bringing in GFC 2008 - because that's in-sample)


(b) Categorization: A few more to the ribbon today - this is now comparable to 6/16/2022 and early Mar 2020

So - WHOA! level Oversold really.

(c) Pre-requisites: 82% - ie sorta met. But not all.
AND this one should be obvious -its the Capitulation - I track this pretty minutely - so it was almost there with the Open but of course
one a NET BASIS - today was neutral!


NET MESSAGE : Very likely this is the bottom level on this leg (S&P 4800) ...There's of course No Call Trigger or Bottom reversal call - since the estimates are still squarely in danger zone. In this method ( the 2 ruleset tests) - it'll not nail the bottom as I mentioned before.

Best

US Policy FAQ

---

Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.