AOC is my dream 2028 candidate :).

Of course (although be careful what you wish for - many Democrats felt the same thing about Trump in 2016).

But that's the main reason that I think she won't be the nominee in 2028. She might not even run. She doesn't fit the current state of play very well. It wasn't all that long ago that she was calling for decriminalization of the border and criticizing de Blasio for not defunding the police enough, which were positions that fit the 2020 landscape far better than the current one. I don't think 2028 is the election cycle where Democrats are willing to put someone with those kinds of recent positions up.

I think she keeps her powder dry in case there's a thermostatic reaction back to pre-2024 attitudes on immigration and crime. It's a long way to 2028. But she's so young, and so popular in her part of the party, that she doesn't need to move in 2028 if it's not a really good shot for her.

In the end, if she does run I think she'll probably do better than Silver's early favorite for the 2016 nomination - he predicted Harris, and she didn't even make it to Iowa. She'll have enough money and access to money to stay in the race as long as she wants, and she'll have the progressive lane all to herself. And maybe she decides it's a good year to take a Presidential campaign "L" to raise her national profile even further. But not the nominee.