Thanks for your thoughts there Jim. Dry powder is my largest defensive allocation. It’s the only thing that makes true sense for the reasons you have articulated. I also note Berkshire has more than a few barrels of dry powder.

I do have some out of the money long dated puts on Microstrategy and own a long VIX fund. I expect to loose on both but take comfort from having a little bit of crash insurance. The VIX product worked well end of last week, jumping 20% when everything else was falling 2% including Berkshire. The escalation yesterday in the Middle East will be cause more ripples on Monday.

Buffett’s biggest allocation over the last 2 years (OXY) starting to look pretty smart also.

I see after yesterday bitcoin fell 8% demonstrating that it’s a gambling token rather than a hedge against anything.

Talking to folks yesterday in U.K. in general about the state of the world. On the ground people are really starting to struggle. Particularly the working middle classes and the young. The level of government support for large groups of the population seems unsustainable LT. It’s hard to be bullish on equities these days and although owning quality cash flowing reasonably priced businesses will work out in long term, it does feel like we have hit the breaks and are skidding across the road waiting for impact. My hedges are small but I won’t feel so bad if the impact is bad. Nobody knows anything.

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