Youssef proposes that what Trump has been after all along, is disrupting oil and gas production in the Persian Gulf, to make the US the dominant supplier to the world.

It's reasonable to state one of the Administration's overarching aim to be "US energy dominance", as spelled out in Project 2025 (some of the major contributors working with the administration) - energy flows to be redirected to US-controlled sources for geopolitical and economical advantages.

That would include non-US but now US-controlled sources such as Venezuela. Also lines up with almost violent suppression of domestic renewable projects, so they don't "divert attention and investment dollars" from further fossil fuel expansion.

There were initial "successes" but
- the much-wanted Venezuelan capacity development hit road blocks
- the Iran "special operation" (this one likely had multiple drivers) seems to be failing

So it looks like the masterplan was not all that perfect. What's next?

Keeping the Strait closed - results in global misery, including for the US - perhaps some more energy flows moving but US voters will see "inflation" rather than embrace "energy dominance" (while everyone else will gang up on the US) - Trump / GOP may face a landslide defeat at the midterms, despite "mitigation measures" (mail voting, id requirements, ICE presence) being attempted.

Reopening the Strait (at Iran's conditions) comes at a high political price, too. No more "America first". Difficult to sell domestically.

Boots on the ground? Difficult to sell domestically.

Perhaps some muddle-though compromise that can be barely sold domestically?