comments w/some interesting notes from multiple sources :

short-term, it's a race between trump's cowardly betrayal and the EU ramping up.

longer-term :
ukraine knows trump will not risk any military move against putin on some ephemeral mineral deal...and probably for no reason ever. there is certainly a long list of excuses already prepared.

given any break\ceasefire\border freeze, russia has a demographic issue with regards to continued expansion. they could temper this, and somewhat buy time, by going after a smaller non-NATO nation on the southern border.
the critical piece is easing energy sanctions, which will lead to a giveaway every intelligence source will know (and trump will ignore) ;
is russia maintaining\growing the wartime economy in the name of 'defense'?
are they escalating cybercrime , cyberwarfare, political misinformation, and strategic (not grudge) assassinations ?

if so, trump has invited america to be putin's home away from home, by ceasing cyberattacks on russia's state-sponsored criminals, and letting russia repopulate embassies for espionage w/diplomatic immunity.