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Hence the original question. Much of the discussion does, indeed, belong on the Macroeconomics board. However, MI and its algorithms are premised on certain underlying assumptions, and the question wonders whether those questions, and your parsed questions, have any impact on those underlying assumptions, and so on the extant algorithms.
You are exactly right that MI is premised on certain underlying assumptions, but more realistically it is based on a continuous stream of assumptions (changing, semi-random, highly unpredictable conditions). Baltassar expressed this similarly in that they have been selected over a periods that have covered far, far, far more than Covid (particularly Covid continuing in a economy a degree of separation away).
In the intermediate- to longer-term--those 3-5 years suggested by hedgehog444, and longer, I add--I agree things will settle out. But we have to live through the near-term to get to those other years. We're not allowed to skip ahead.
This boils down to market timing, which is pretty much outside of MI. We are not asking how MI will do so much as what the market will do (with MI highly correlated, and extremely correlated in direction even when the volatility is different). But it is fair question, I'm just putting the question in richer context.
- Manlobbi
