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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: FlyingCircus   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Market Trend Indicators 2/24/23 - Trendless land
Date: 02/25/23 3:23 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 21
Well, that stunk (to put a nice word on it). All it took was a higher inflation print than forecast to put the brakes on and create a strong short term top in the last week of February. Bowley (@Stockcharts) wrote that February is historically the worst month of the stronger winter period, and this year (again) followed the pattern.
GTAA indicators are below. The summary:
* US LC Momentum, Emerging, Total bonds and 7-10 year treasuries flipped back below their moving averages to an 'out' state. (As yields increased in a changed anticipation of longer interest rate increases or pushed rate decreases.)
* Cash is now the top ranked asset based on straight average rank of 1,3,6, and 12 month returns. This condition is likely very short lived.
* Foreign Developed, US Small Cap and global high yield remain the top 3 non-cash in this ranking system (out if following Dual Momentum).

Timing signals
* The 3 active short term trend signals have flipped to a 'bearish/top' state.
* $NAHL (BC1) is back to bearish with a reading of -35 on the 9D EMA. SMA slope has gone back to Neutral.
* Midterm breadth has deteriorated.
* The Dow corporate bond index has flipped to bearish with the bond selloff/yield increases.

My overall dashboard has dropped back to 'Neutral' (-1) from solidly bullish 2 weeks ago.

Asset Class 	Signal	Last	Since	# wks	Top6	Rank
US LC CHG IN 2/1/23 3 8
US LC Momentum OUT OUT 2/24/23 0 11
US SC IN IN 1/13/23 6 2
US SC Growth IN IN 1/13/23 6 5
For. Developed IN IN 11/11/22 14 3
For. Dev. SC IN IN 11/25/22 12 7
Emerging OUT OUT 2/24/23 0 13
Real Estate IN IN 1/13/23 6 12
Foreign Real CHG IN 1/6/23 7 9
Total Bond OUT OUT 2/24/23 0 9
10Y US Gov OUT OUT 1/7/22 58 14
Global Hi Yield IN IN 1/6/23 7 4
Preferred IN IN 1/13/23 6 6
Cash/ST X 1

What madness will March bring?

FC
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