No. of Recommendations: 16
I've never seen Wall Street analysts and CEO's as unified euphoric as they are today...
Even, dare I say it, a bit with Berkshire.
Great company, but I don't personally expect much of a return from it in the short term, edging towards the medium term.
Super short reasoning:
20 year average P/B is just a hair under 1.40
Current price of a B share is about $470, giving P/B 1.611, so it is 15.3% "ahead of itself" compared to the usual.
Value per share has risen at a number very close to inflation + 8%/year for a very long time. That's likely a hair optimistic going forward, but let's go with it.
So, if the future growth rate and P/B resembled the past for the next while (big ifs but not unreasonable), the real price would be unchanged 1.85 years from now.
Unusually, T-bills have a positive real return right now. The market implied forecast for rates middle of next year has risen about 1% lately.
Jim
(relatively low on BRK positions, relatively high allocation to bills)
