No. of Recommendations: 6
I know it's bogus because they are currently giving a 3% chance of Jesus returning by 2027. But there is a zero percent chance of that.
Lots of things to criticize about these 'prediction markets,' but this seems pretty kosher to me. These "chances" aren't set by the betting site, but just reflect what people are willing to bet on. There's a non-zero number of people who believe in the near-term second coming of Jesus, and are willing to put a little money on it. Even though there's a zero percent chance of that happening, transaction costs make it impossible for people in early 2026 to arbitrage the odds on a late 2027 payout down to zero (you can get better interest rates on an FDIC-insured savings account).
