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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: knighttof3   😊 😞
Number: of 21944 
Subject: Re: Valuation
Date: 11/29/24 6:24 AM
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Okay, thanks. I guess I was wondering about methods that could be applied to general businesses.
I like "future earnings yield" for identifying GARP stocks. Look at the income statements and the current balance sheet, in your preferred order of importance.

For earnings:
Estimate some earnings CAGR for the next N years (5-7). Calculate the total earnings for that year. (Eg 2030 if N=6).
Discount by M% (20-50) based on your confidence in the earnings predictions. (Obviously for downside only).
Discount I% (15-20 for 5-7 years) for inflation.
Divide by today's market cap.
That's the "future earnings yield". See if you think it's cheap considering the quality of the business (an extremely subjective measure).

Take help from numerical measures, to project earnings and to estimate confidence, but not blindly.

For balance sheet: estimate debt coverage, mix of ST vs LT liabilities, general goodness of assets, especially intangible ones.

With this method, I have had indifferent success compared to indexing so far, but future is always brighter for value investing. Right? Right?

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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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