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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: Blackswanny   😊 😞
Number: of 1072 
Subject: Diageo
Date: 10/04/25 12:05 PM
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Looking good after a hefty fall from grace?

They're on a fwd PE of about c14 and the lowest they've traded previously in the last 10 years from my research is 15 PE.

The time may be right?

I'm focussing on UK companies atm but they are international and have US listing DEO.
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Author: tedthedog   😊 😞
Number: of 1072 
Subject: Re: Diageo
Date: 10/06/25 10:59 AM
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A quick look at their numbers shows top line revenue relatively stable from 6/30/2023 to 6/30/2025

Same for operating revenue, for cost of revenue, for gross profit.

Total operating expense went up a lot from 6/30/2024 to 6/30/2025.
The bump was in "Other operating expense" column

What was this ? Someone more interested than me might want to go deeper.

Caveat: numbers from Yahoo
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 1072 
Subject: Re: Diageo
Date: 10/08/25 3:16 PM
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FYI, the international booze companies were mentioned a couple of times on the Non-US Stocks board.
e.g., first couple of posts in this thread started in April
https://www.shrewdm.com/MB?pid=448539467

Price of Diageo is down since then. Currently 1793 pence.

Note that the dividend has been cut. That may be one factor in the weak recent price.
At the prior dividend level (a pound a year), the yield on today's price would be 5.6%.

Perhaps the most interesting thing in that thread is the article I found about how reports of the permanent death of alcohol consumption, like Mark Twain's, might be exaggerated.
"...survey of more than 26,000 people across the 15 largest alcoholic drinks markets found 73 per cent of Gen Z respondents — people of legal drinking age to 27 — had consumed alcohol in the previous six months, compared with 66 per cent two years ago. That was the biggest increase of any generation..."

Though current trailing P/E is around 18, I think that the multiple of cyclically adjusted earnings might be more like 9-12. That is optimistically assuming that the current weakness is ultimately transient, so normalized earnings in the 1.50 - 2.00 range as was the case all of 2021-2024, not all of which was the pandemic pop.

Jim
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Author: Blackswanny   😊 😞
Number: of 1072 
Subject: Re: Diageo
Date: 10/08/25 5:28 PM
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I bought in the other day (DGE), I'm looking for more traditional old school value plays to park funds for the next couple of years whilst anything tech related seems over valued.

I also have an eye on currency depreciation, and stubborn inflation. Is it time for old school value to shine again?

ETF wise I've purchased some KWEB and am drip feeding into an equal weighted S&P 500.

Kinda hoping for the crash now so I can buy back into Berkshire and also QQQ @40%+ below current levels. Here's hoping!

I was doing some research on top to bottom corrections for QQQ today and the dot com was 31 months 86% decline and GFC 18 months 54% decline.
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