*                         6/3      6/10     6/17     6/24/24
S&P 500 Index             5277.51  5346.99  5431.60  5464.62
Trailing 12 month PE      27.11    27.42    27.81    28.29
Trail Earnings yield      3.69%    3.65%    3.60%    3.53%
Forward 12 month PE       22.68    22.92    23.22    24.24
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.41%    4.36%    4.31%    4.12%
90 day tbill yield        5.46     5.52     5.51     5.49
10 year tbond yield       4.51%    4.43%    4.20%    4.25%
Arezi Ratio               1.48     1.51     1.53     1.55
Fed Ratio                 1.02     1.02     0.98     1.03

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 42%
stocks, 58% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 12%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 63%.

Elan

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