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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Bearish signal
Date: 03/06/25 4:50 PM
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SAHMREALTIME above 0.5 is another possible recession indicator, but this is now followed by the FED and so today it might just be a FED rate cut indicator.

Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME)
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) | FRED

======= more GTT links =================
Industrial Production: Total Index (INDPRO)
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Industrial Production: Total Index | FRED

Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales (RRSFS)
St. Louis Fed (FRED): Advance Real Retail and Food Services Sales | FRED

Growth and Trend: A Simple, Powerful Technique for Timing the Stock Market, Posted on January 18, 2016
The available monthly signals are:
Real Retail Sales Growth (yoy)
Industrial Production Growth (yoy)
Real S&P 500 EPS Growth (yoy), modeled on a total return basis.
Employment Growth (yoy)
Real Personal Income Growth (yoy)
Housing Start Growth (yoy)

Empirically, for the U.S. economy, the strongest historical recession indicator is Real Retail Sales Growth.
Another accurate recession indicator is Industrial Production Growth.
philosophicaleconomics.com: Growth and Trend: A Simple, Powerful Technique for Timing the Stock Market

Philosophical Economics’ Growth-Trend Timing (Redux), July 16, 2019
"Like most trend-following strategies, the strength of GTT hasn’t been in generating outsized returns; it has been in maintaining returns while managing losses."
allocatesmartly.com - Philosophical economics growth trend timing redux
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