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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: Dope1   😊 😞
Number: of 55803 
Subject: Re: Let’s See If This Pans Out for Putin
Date: 08/18/2025 1:55 PM
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Yes, it is. As pointed out upthread, Russia's rapidly approaching the point where it's burned through all their foreign currency reserves and reached unsustainable levels of debt.

Have they? Or maybe...there's a vested interest in at least one of Putin's silent partners (*cough*China*cough*) to keep him in the war.

I'm 100% willing to try to inflict as much economic harm as possible on Russia. I think that secondary sanctions in the form of embargo-level tariffs will not inflict economic harm on Russia, and indeed will have the unintended consequence of helping them out. If you tell China and India it's either us or Russia, they'll both choose to continue getting their energy from Russia - and being completely cut off from us means that they'll have no choice but to continue to integrate their own economies together. Which makes things worse for the war.

China is an export-driven economy. Them cutting us off in favor of India and Russia is a disaster for them. They can't do it.

Getting to the point:
I think Ukraine's on the path to victory. Painful sanctions on Russia's business partners will be counterproductive and end up making the situation worse, and involving U.S. troops directly makes the situation far too dangerous by risking changing this into a global (rather than a regional) military theater. Neither of those things would help, and neither of them are necessary.

Wow, we see this completely different. I think they're being worn down too far.
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