I don't need "alpha" from Prem. With underwriting profitability and the leverage I get on a $68 Billion investment portfolio on $23 Billion of shareholders equity, all I need is 5%. I am willing to place (continue placing) a bet that Prem does at least 5 but apparently Brett Horn is not.

Yes, the total investment portfolio is probably about $70b now ($64.8b at the end of 2023.) That breaks down into about $50b in fixed income ($39b at the end of 2022, $44b at the end of 2023), and about $20b in non-fixed income investments ($16.5b at the end of 2023.)

The $50b in fixed income should make about 5%, so $2.5b pre-tax. The $20b in non-fixed income will have made well over 10% in 2024, so about $2b, for a total of $4.5b on $23b in equity, or 19% pre-tax, and we haven't gotten to underwriting. If the combined ratio slips to 97% on $33b of net premiums written, that's another $1b, and it could be more. So the 15% hurdle will be comfortably met in 2024. And that's without counting the fact that a lot of the earning power is hidden from view because of the accounting for the equity accounted associates like Eurobank, Poseidon, Fairfax India and Thomas Cook India. One way of seeing that this is happening (without double counting) is to note that there will be big realized gains like Stelco and Peak Achievement, in positions that equity accounting was valuing well beneath their selling price..

So yes, Watsa's alpha is very nice to have, but Fairfax is set up to do pretty well even if the alpha is just humdrum.