No. of Recommendations: 2
It's too early to really predict anything, but early indications are yellow flags for deomocrats.
First, they're only up a tepid +2.8 in the polls (by RCP). They need to be at least +5 to meaningfully grab seats. At this rate according to CNN's Harry Enten...they're actually on track to lose some ground:
ENTEN (on-camera): What happens when you go race by race? Well, it's the same idea. OK, House seat ratings with a GOP president like back in 2005 and, of course, 2017. More net pick-up seat chances. Well, last time around, look at that. Democrats were ahead by 33 seats. How about in 2005? Democrats were ahead by seven seats. What's going on right now? It's actually Republicans.
Actually, Republicans with more net pick-up chances at plus 12, according to the Cook Political Report, when you add in the likelihoods, the liens, and the toss-up races. So, it's not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005 pace. It's actually when it comes seat by seat, you see that at least at this particular point, Republicans actually have more net pick-up opportunities. This doesn't look anything like those wave elections back in 2006 or 2018.X (Twitter): (((Harry Enten))) on X: "Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs.Woof.
Things also need to change for them in some states. DeSantis just knocked out their challenge to Florida's redistricting from a few years ago, so there's not a lot of chances to upend the 20-8 lead the GOP has in Florida reps. And now Texas is looking to redraw its map...and that could lead to 5 more seats for the Republicans.
