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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
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Author: ajm101 ✶  😊 😞
Number: of 1251 
Subject: Re: Cable/Media
Date: 10/26/26 11:21 AM
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I looked at and bought Comcast. I'd held it before it always seemed well-run. And I bought most recently for the NBCUniversal spinoff. The Versant spinoff (VSNT) is interesting, too.

The elephant in the room for them is clearly SpaceX and Starlink. There are a lot of ways to look at the spinoffs, and removing a reason that SPCX and Musk would want target CMCSA could be one of them. But on a technical basis, V3 is worse that terrestrial cable (docsys 4 hybrid fiber/coax). The low orbit satellite life spans result in a higher ongoing infra cost, and the performance is structurally worse on bandwidth and latency. It's subject to weather interference, and is harder to repair in the event of outages. I believe their may be some regulatory spectrum acquisition problems, too, but haven't looked into that deeply.

Starlink is great for rural internet. I know some people that were unhappy with Centurylink (or some other rural provider) who switched and are happy. Those companies are in some trouble. I think cellular providers may be in some trouble for customers that travel frequently, and they may have pressure on pricing.

The elephant in the room for Starlink would be why they want to do this. It may be an altruistic vision of connecting the world, but it's not likely to be a business that is a good fit for their valuation. Collecting traffic metadata could be worth a small fortune for training AI models, among other things. That would depend on how you feel about management.

Bringing it back around, CMCSA is not a large position for me. It's because I think the biggest threat is from Starlink, and SPCX has almost unlimited funds to wage a value destroying pricing war against them, and SPCX ownership has zero threat from shareholders and can act however they'd like. I continue to hold CMCSA and would be inclined to add more than sell.
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