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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Index Investing
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Author: rochish   😊 😞
Number: of 291 
Subject: Re: Small caps vs large caps
Date: 10/01/24 7:00 PM
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Hi Manlobbi,

I cannot overstate my appreciation for your tireless efforts and invaluable contributions to this board. Your dedication to single-handedly developing and maintaining this platform has created an exceptional resource for investors. Your insights have significantly enhanced my understanding of small cap vs. large cap valuations and expected performance.

However, I respectfully offer a different perspective on the utility of the chart you shared compared to absolute Shiller CAPE values.

Consider a hypothetical scenario where the S&P 500 yields 0% per annum over the next decade. The relative performance chart suggests the Russell 2000 might yield around 5% per annum in this case. However, this return alone wouldn't be sufficient to justify an investment in the Russell 2000 for my risk tolerance.

Conversely, if the mean historical Shiller CAPE and the current Shiller CAPE for the Russell 2000 are comparable (or if the historical mean exceeds the current value), I'd find that a lot more compelling. Such a scenario would suggest the potential for returns closer to the Russell 2000's historical performance (which I estimate to be around 10%, give or take).

Thank you again for fostering such an enlightening environment for investment discussion and analysis.
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This community has written 287 posts about Index Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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Shrewd Sam vs No-risk Ned · 2 recs · 2024
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