No. of Recommendations: 2
There's a 6 year backtest........ The best total return was 88% for the 6 Years 2016/3 to 2022/3...... This was worse than B&H or BCC timing. (Over these 6 years, SPY total return was 136%. SPY with BCC0 timing total return was 130%.) I will continue using BCC0 timing.
Very interesting for sure, but none of the 3 backrests used Index values close to the ones I observed were perfect buy/sell signals this year:
- Buy at Index values close to 0 = The low point of 'Extreme Fear' (Their 'Timeline' has too low resolution so you can't see it, but even in Sep there was values of 9, 11, etc.)
But only one of those 3 backtests went so far to say 'buy at first Very/Extreme Fear', which actually is the upper bound of 25 and therefore only 'a little extreme fear'.
- Sell at Index value close to 75 (The backtest just mentioned, the only one coming close with respect to the buy signal, already sold much earlier, at the beginning of Greed = 55).
And the question of course is: If that Index is more or less useless, why then was it so extremely perfect this year (just overlay S&P 1 year chart with 'Timeline', with 'Buy' not far from 0 and 'Sell' around 75)?
