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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Bear Catchers
Date: 12/28/22 5:55 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Said wrote 'I see much more value in this (Click on 'Timeline'): edition.cnn.com - Fear and greed

There's a 6 year backtest here:
Sentiment Data Backtest Statistics: CNN Fear & Greed Index
w3data.io - Cnn fear greed backtests

The best total return was 88% for the 6 Years 2016/3 to 2022/3 (Buy at FGI first Fear Signal, Sell at FGI first Very Greed Signal). This was worse than B&H or BCC timing. (Over these 6 years, SPY total return was 136%. SPY with BCC0 timing total return was 130%.) I will continue using BCC0 timing.

Timing methods benefit from long backtests that capture various economic and market conditions. FGI is only available since 2010. BCC can be tested back to 1930. Novell's SPY-COMP has been backtested to 1970: allocatesmartly.com - Paul novells flagship strategy spy comp

links...
SPY-COMP On AllocateSmartly, April 25, 2020
investingforaliving.us - Spy comp on allocatesmartly

Fear The Greed And Fear Index, July 15, 2016
'The CNN Greed and Fear Index is not a useful investment tool. Going back to mid-2010, a strategy to buy-and-hold the S&P 500 would have returned 95%. A sell-on-greed strategy would have returned only 50%- or less. During a bull market in equities, as with precious metals, it pays to stay invested.'
seekingalpha.com - Fear greed and fear

Fear & Greed Index: What It Is & How It Works, May 19, 2022
'While the Fear and Greed Index can be a useful tool, it shouldn't be used in isolation. Instead, it is most useful when used to confirm other key indicators or readings.'
seekingalpha.com - Fear and greed
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This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
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