I´d like to add something to clarify: I am 50% cash of net assets. It is very very tempting for me to now heavily buy stocks of really good companies that have fallen a lot (Lululemon and SAP). And to write many more BRK puts than I´be done yesterday to eventually buy Berkshire stock at effectively around $450.

If you think we are entering a secular bear market, there will be plenty of time to buy - no need to rush. The market is not even in correction territory yet. To me a secular bear market would be one where the SP500 trades down under 5000, and then stays in the 5000-6000 range for 3 or so years, and we probably wouldn't see a new ATH in the market until say 2033 or so.

If we assume some earning growth in that period (probably muted) we might expect in say 2030 for TTM EPS in the SP500 of $300 in aggregate, meaning at 5000 it would be at a PE of around 16, which is probably low enough to start the next bull market. In such a market it wouldn't be uncommon for the SP500 to even trade closer to 4000 for a period of time.

So lots of opportunity to deploy cash...


tecmo
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