Ray quotes Google: Since 1946, there have been 20 midterm elections. In 18 of them, the president’s party lost seats in the House of Representatives. That’s 90% of the midterm elections in the past 80 years.

This reminds me of a few sayings in my line of work....

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Statistics don't lie, but liars use statistics.
Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

This is aimed at Google, not Ray, just so you know....

The point of these sayings is not that statistics themselves are false. Rather, statistics can be selected, framed, or presented in a way that supports a particular narrative while omitting important context.

What I presented above is a more fair way to frame the mid-term results. It is not a loss if the party in power goes from 292 House seats to 277 as happened under President Carter. They still controlled the house.

As I wrote in my table in the other thread:

Win Defined: No chamber lost; may have maintained control or gained a chamber or remained the same.
Loss Defined: Lost control of at least one chamber it held before the election.

I would consider this a fair assessment. Losing seats but maintaining control is in many ways irrelevant!

Elan wrote: Yes, but, the last time a president didn't lose the midterms was in 2002. Since then the presidents have lost every midterm, six times in a row.

Yes, and that is why I said I always thought that was the case. But I study market history, and market history includes a whole lot more than 24 years!