No. of Recommendations: 6
I experimented, using P123, with various methods of limiting the Max DD. Everything I tried hugely stunted its growth.
I can't find my spreadsheet right now where I played with timing TQQQ.
But just remember the results. Which I coded up to automate it.
Best timing scheme I found was:
Note that this uses QQQ to time TQQQ, and it only trades once a month.
Each day, get the high of QQQ
Each week, compute the high for that week, and note which month it is in.
# Save the high of each month and the closing price of the month.
# Then
# For each month, see if this close is higher than the close of the
# previous 2 months & this month. If so, flag it.
# For each month, see if this month & the previous 2 are flagged.
# If so, "buy"
# If not, "sell"
# This is: if each of the latest 3 months saw a 3 month high = buy/keep.
# Decide buy/sell on the next-last weekday of the month, trade on last day of month.
Not sure how you could to this at P123. Let us know if you manage it.
Probably no new 90 day high in any of the last 90 days would work ok.
I don't recall trying no new 13 week high in the last 13 weeks, and trade weekly.
As you see from the chart, you want to hold TQQQ most of the time since inception.
Not sure how TQQQ would do outside of a bull market.
TQQQ Inception Date was 2/9/2010.
I show for 2/7/2010 - 6/11/2023:
CAGR: TQQQ 40.6% Timed-TQQQ 38.2%
MaxDD: -69% & -54% (testfol.io says -82% for TQQQ, so we differ there.)
