No. of Recommendations: 14
* 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31/26
S&P 500 Index 7757.64 7785.76 7674.37 7711.76
Trailing 12 month PE 29.69 30.06 29.46 29.79
Trail Earnings yield 3.37% 3.33% 3.39% 3.36%
Forward 12 month PE 20.53 20.60 20.28 20.25
Fwd Earnings Yield 4.87% 4.85% 4.93% 4.94%
90 day tbill yield 3.87 3.86 3.88 3.90
10 year tbond yield 4.65% 4.68% 4.74% 4.73%
Arezi Ratio 1.15 1.16 1.14 1.16
Fed Ratio 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96
The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.
The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.
The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 62%
stocks, 38% cash this week.
Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal. - Bullish
A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 42%.
An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 75%.
Elan