No. of Recommendations: 0
that old forecast thinks we might see a price rise of 22.6% from here in the next 16 months = 16.8%/yr rate.
Which raises an interesting question: What does that forecast say about the direction of the general market in that time frame?
The Mantra here is: "In a bear market Berkshire falls too" (maybe less severe, maybe less long, but ......) which could be translated into: "Berkshire is too big to move for long in the opposite direction than the overall market" - - - which makes a lot of sense.
If the Mantra and the forecast are both correct it's extremely unlikely the market will do what Grantham expects (going down at least another 20% or so), even unlikely it won't rise.
So something must give (=be wrong) during that time frame, either the mantra or Mungofitch's forecast or the bears market forecast.
